🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|